政策不确定性对公司投融资行为的影响研究

本文以2003-2013年中国A股上市公司的财务数据和31个省市自治区地方官员的变动数据为样本,采用地方官员变动率作为地方政策不确定性的代理变量,研究了政策不确定性对企业投融资的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性显著降低企业的债权融资,但是对股权融资影响不显著。政策不确定性对企业投资的影响存在两种渠道,一是通过降低企业融资来影响投资,二是通过企业资本运作降低融资对投资的影响系数,即政策不确定性越高,企业债权和股权融资对投资的正向作用会越小,这种作用机制在国有企业、大企业等与政策联系紧密的企业中作用更为显著。融资可获得性是政策不确定性影响投资的重要前提之一,融资可获得性较小时,政策不确定性显著降低了企业投资;在融资可获得性较大时,政策不确定性影响不显著。加强长期制度建设,降低政策不确定性,对于稳增长具有重要意义。     

Yen or Yuan? The law of one price and economic integration in Asia

Using highly comparable local retail prices of 146 goods and services across 18 Asian countries over 1990–2014, we analyse price dispersion and test convergence to the law of one price (LOP ) for these prices around three price benchmarks—Asia‐average, Japan and China prices—to gain insight about market integration in overall Asia as well relative integration of Asian economies to Japan and China. Cross‐Asia price dispersion around China‐price benchmark, for both tradables and non‐tradables, diminishes significantly over the sample period whereas that around Japan‐price benchmark increases considerably, particularly after the 2008 crisis. There is convergence to the LOP for about half of goods and services in China‐ and Asia‐average price benchmarks. The percentage of convergent prices is significantly smaller in Japan‐price benchmark. Direct estimates of the convergence speed parameter also confirm these observations. Overall, our results show evidence of increasing economic integration in Asia in the last two decades. The process of price convergence appears to be driven by the emergence of China as the centre of economic gravity in the region. There is much room for improvement as economic integration in Asia is still far below that in Europe in the 1990s or USA in the 1980s.     

A mechanisms-based explanation of nutrition policy (dis)integration processes in Uganda

Many African governments have recently invested in strengthened nutrition policy integration to address malnutrition; as a step towards realising the targets of the Sustainable Development Goal 2. Previous studies have identified various factors that enable or constrain how nutrition integration occurs across policy sectors. However, the explanatory value of these studies has remained relatively limited, as the causal processes through which independent variables affect policy outcomes remain unelucidated. This paper addresses this gap by applying a causal mechanisms approach to investigate the processes that explain observed patterns of nutrition policy (dis)integration in different ministries in Uganda. We employed a process-tracing research design to reconstruct the context-mechanism configurations that explain the observed patterns of nutrition integration in Uganda between 2000 and 2017. Data was collected from interviews with 34 respondents, various policy and programming documents, and a focus group discussion. Our analysis reveals that increased nutrition policy integration is explained by four causal mechanisms: (1) international policy promotion; (2) issue promotion by international actors; (3) issue promotion by domestic policy entrepreneurs; and (4) instrumental policy learning. Conversely, two mechanisms led to policy disintegration: (1) leadership contestation; and (2) turf wars. All mechanisms proved activated by configurations of contextual conditions that were time- and organisation-specific. This study showed how a mechanisms approach can provide a more refined understanding of policy successes and failures in nutrition governance. Whereas integration-fostering mechanisms cannot be automated, both government and international actors working to scale up investments in nutrition need to consider and invest in the contextual conditions that allow for sustained nutrition policy integration and, ultimately, a more effective delivery of nutrition services. These include developing leadership for nutrition at different governance levels, domestic ownership and integration-fostering capacity, and supporting policy-oriented learning.     

Quantitative Easing Forever? Financialisation and the Institutional Legitimacy of the Federal Reserve’s Unconventional Monetary Policy

Scholars of financialisation have argued that the emergence of finance-led grow regimes requires new instruments for effective conduct of economic policy. In this scholarship, central banks have been seen as the most promising actors to utilise one of the most synergetic policies, the maintenance of high and stable prices of financial assets. Since the financial crisis of 2007–8, central banks of the developed world have adopted various unconventional monetary policy measures that serve this function. But will these unconventional measures become institutionally legitimate and institutionalised as conventional practice, as suggested necessary by scholars of financialisation? In this paper, we answer to this question by studying the institutional legitimation of the Federal Reserve’s Quantiative Easing (QE) programmes. We argue that the QE programmes have been legitimated successfully but with institutional legitimation strategies, which cause institutional pressures that question the potential of QE from becoming a regular policy instrument and practice.     

当前落户城市阶段农民工市民化的风险分析

农民工市民化的顺利推进需要管控相关风险。系统分析当前农民工落户城市阶段的市民化,发现农民工面临落户与未能落户的风险、城市面临落户农民工较少或较多的风险、与农民工市民化相连的农村面临振兴的风险、整个国家面临人的现代化的风险。风险的成因,与市场的非均衡、政策的渐进主义惯性及环境的不确定性等相关。治理相关风险,需要对农民工市民化的主体进行预期引导、行动调节与利益支持。本文可能的贡献,在于提出并系统分析了落户阶段农民工市民化的风险,特别是在落户农民工、落户少的城市、人的现代化等的风险分析上贡献了有新意的观点;同时,对风险的成因与对策的分析在实践中有一定的启发与应用价值。     

Rethinking the bottom of the pyramid: Towards a new marketing mix

The purpose of this study is to re-conceptualize the conventional marketing mix for Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) markets and propose a revised framework by reorganizing the elements based on the customer perspective while retaining the principles of services marketing. Primary data was collected through a questionnaire with a sample size of 400 people from both urban and rural markets in the BoP. Findings indicate that the needs and perspective of the BoP members is distinct from the Middle of the Pyramid (MoP). Managers should consider this point while formulating marketing mix strategies for BoP markets. The present study is the first of its kind to present a revised marketing mix framework for customers in the BoP markets. The framework comprises five Ps, including personalization, product, place, the process of service delivery and price. Thus, a theoretical contribution is made in the context of service marketing and the BoP.     

The effect of within-country inequality on international trade and investment agreements

There is anecdotal evidence suggesting that those losing from globalization influence policy makers to decrease the openness of their countries to globalization, as evidenced by signing international trade and investment agreements. Surprisingly, this influence has never been examined empirically. This study provides novel empirical evidence demonstrating that greater within-country inequality, our proxy for 'perceived losses' from globalization, decreases countries' propensity to sign regional trade and investment agreements. Our findings support the argument that the existence of 'losers' from globalization can be detrimental for continued globalization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first extensive econometric empirical evidence of the influence of within-country inequality on countries' willingness to sign international trade and investment agreements, as means to increase their global economic integration.     

我国粮食产后损失情况概述

本文系统分析了粮食产后各环节损失的原因及损失量,针对相关粮食损失原因及状况,提出了减少粮食产后损失的措施及建议,以期为我国实现节粮减损提供支持。     

新时代中国国际政治经济学研究:问题与方向

国际形势的迅速变化为国际政治经济学研究提供了更为广阔的研究视野,但面对复杂多变的世界经济和政治形势,单纯的经济学研究往往无法解释现实,经济学、政治学以及社会学等诸多学科间的分立与隔绝状态不利于国际政治经济学的深入发展。中国的国际政治经济学研究需要关注五个方面的问题:第一,打破经济学尤其是国际经济学研究的专业壁垒;第二,加强对经济全球化问题的综合性研究;第三,注重对美国国内经济结构变化及其对社会生活、政治生活与对外政策影响的研究;第四,加强对国际货币、资本、金融运行机制的深入研究并从货币权力视角构建国际政治经济学框架;第五,加强对1500年以来大国兴衰过程中"挑战国陷阱"问题的研究。只有在解决好上述五个问题的基础上,国内理论界才能构建一个符合新时代要求的国际政治经济学理论和大国关系理论,并以此支撑中国的可持续崛起。